Constrained Forecast of One-sided Integer Response Model

This function estimates the lower and upper 80% and 95% forecasts of the Model. The final values are within the lower and upper limits of the base data. Used in conjunction with <scaled_logit> and <inv_scaled_logit> functions, they are adapted from Hyndman & Athanasopoulos (2021) and modified for independent use rather than be restricted to be used with a particular package.

Usage

constrainedforecast(Model, lower, upper)

Arguments

Model: This is the exponential values from the invscaledlogit function.
lower: The lower limit of the forecast
upper: The upper limit of the forecast

Value

A list of forecast values within 80% and 95% confidence band. The values are:

Lower 80%: Forecast at lower 80% confidence level.
Upper 80%: Forecast at upper 80% confidence level.
Lower 95%: Forecast at lower 95% confidence level.
Upper 95%: Forecast at upper 95% confidence level.

Examples

library(Dyn4cast)
library(splines)
library(forecast)
lower <- 1
upper <- 37
Model   <- lm(states ~ bs(sequence, knots = c(30, 115)), data = Data)
FitModel <- scaledlogit(x = fitted.values(Model), lower = lower,
 upper = upper)
ForecastModel <- forecast(FitModel, h = length(200))
ForecastValues <- constrainedforecast(Model = ForecastModel, lower, upper)